![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() The US response above to China's statement indicates what the immediate US counter would be after any potential flashpoint: diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict without military action. 7 Although the US also asserted an optimism that there were no reason tensions over Taiwan would lead to a conflict, when one side clearly states an action would lead to war, it is best to listen and prepare accordingly. 6 As recently as January 2021, the Chinese defense ministry publicly stated that Taiwan’s independence would mean war the US responded with a statement supporting Taiwan. China’s government and military are working to prevent Taiwan’s independence, which could easily include an invasion if Taiwan declared independence and elicit a US response. 5 Whether it’s human rights violations, cyber-attacks, an escalation in disputed territorial waters, or conflict over territory, possible flashpoints abound.Īs there are too many flashpoints to address adequately, or which drives the US response, this paper zeros in on one particular source of conflict: Taiwan. 3 There could be a cyber or space warfare incident. Alternatively, a dispute between China and Japan over the Senkakus island chain in the East China Sea could draw in the US, or tension could escalate over the Korean peninsula. 2 Another friction point is the US freedom of navigation operations, which could incite a Chinese response that spirals out of control. Just this month, the US publicly accused and condemned China for committing crimes against humanity and genocide against their Uyghur Muslim population and other minority groups. A review of any news source offers incidents that, without care, could be a harbinger of worse things to come. It does not pay to ignore the possibility of conflict, however, when there are so many friction points. Trade and debt intertwine the US and China to the point of interdependence and harming one nation automatically harms the other. Although large-scale conventional conflict between two nuclear powers has not occurred in the nuclear age, those who suggest that the two countries would refrain tend to rest their reasoning not on the presence of nukes but on the reasoning that war is unlikely due to it being extremely bad for both countries' economies. There is debate amongst scholars, journalists, and political scientists about whether the US and China would ever engage in a large conventional war. Potential for War between the United States and China Strained relations and multiple potential flashpoints indicate that not only is a large conventional war between the US and China in the next 25 years possible, but it could escalate to be a long, bitter war and would utilize and test the abilities of all warfighting domains and instruments of power. Though international relations and inter-country dynamics are much more complicated, it is undeniable that there is friction where Chinese and US prerogatives intersect. These debates reduce great nations to no more than two alpha dogs fighting for supremacy. ![]() By Maj Megan Tonner-Robinson, Maj Benjamin Johnson, Maj Zachary MasonĬhina’s rise and its determination to carve out a place for itself on the world stage often evokes debate as to whether the United States, for so long at the top of the international order, will seek to swat China back down the ladder. ![]()
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